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Against the backdrop of the widespread uncertainty regarding the American military actions on Venezuela, the apprehension of President Nicolás Maduro, and Donald Trump's announcement that the US will “run” the country and “seize control of the oil”, a single fact remains evident – this establishes a deeply alarming precedent.

A Grim History and a New Escalation

The United States has a grim history of interference, invasion and occupation in that part of the world, but this past Saturday morning saw its first major military attack on South American land. “The preeminence of America in this region is now beyond dispute,” Trump proclaimed.

The move to assault another state and abduct its leader – mere days after he openly looked for a diplomatic solution – has still wider repercussions. It should alarm us all.

Deep Instability for a Nation in Crisis

Venezuelans have endured a repressive, kleptocratic and incompetent regime under Mr Maduro, commonly thought to have rigged the previous presidential vote. They now face extreme instability in the best case. Mr Trump has suggested that Mr Maduro’s deputy, Delcy Rodríguez would comply with American demands, and dismissed conservative dissident leader and Nobel prize-winner María Corina Machado as a credible successor.

However, Ms Rodríguez, now the interim president, has so far adopted a posture of resistance – and other parts of the headless administration are considerably more radical.

From Global Policeman to International Outlaw

A man who won power promising to abandon foreign wars now says he is “unconcerned about deploying troops”. Renaming the Department of Defense as the Department of War was not merely symbolic. He fails to perceive the world’s superpower as a international peacekeeper; he is turning it into a lawless actor.

He believes that the US’s might enables it to do as it wishes with scant penalty: witness the military actions against Nigeria and Iranian installations. He promises that the oil resources of Venezuela means this most recent venture “won’t cost us a penny”.

An Illegal Assault on Sovereignty

George W. Bush initiated war in Iraq on a lie. But this action without legal basis came lacking any form of UN approval or congressional approval; key legislators received no advance notice and say they were actively misled in briefings. Mr Trump is not trying to twist international norms, but to shatter them.

Disregard the message this sends to global powers like Russia and China, and question the future path of the United States. While the raid reportedly killed 40 Venezuelans, including civilians, no US personnel died. Mr Trump’s escalating feeling of being untouchable will likely encourage more reckless actions.

The Thin Pretext and True Motives

Few believe the pretext that this is about drugs. Venezuela is only a secondary pathway for cocaine; Mr Trump recently granted clemency to the former Honduran president Juan Orlando Hernández for related criminal convictions. Mr Trump himself has been explicit that he is driven by the allure of petroleum resources as well as machismo, the ideology of some in his administration, and the appetite for triumphalism as his standing with the American public falters.

A Muted Global Reaction and Institutional Irrelevance

The worldwide reception, especially in Europe, has – with honourable exceptions – been shockingly muted. That’s not a result of Mr Maduro’s sins, but anxiety over Mr Trump’s wrath. The firm response from UN Secretary General António Guterres was commendable, but this episode underscores the waning power of international bodies.

Mr Trump’s anti-interventionist domestic base could still pressure him to turn attention back home – but rising medical costs, economic unhappiness and distracting files increase his appetite for distraction.

Barely 12 months into his time in office. The international community may live to repent if they stay silent now, with the question of which nation is next looming.