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Residents of the Big Apple will discover who will be their new city leader this election day, in a race that will decide who governs and protects the nation's largest city at a time when the former president has threatened to deploy armed forces to the city.

Against that backdrop, New York has experienced a race for mayor that has matched two very different Democrats against one another. The contest has turned into an acrimonious face-off, laced with alleged racial bias and anti-Muslim sentiment, but it is the political differences between the two main contenders that could have major implications for how the party fares in next year's midterm elections.

The Rising Progressive

On the left side is the democratic socialist, the 34-year-old progressive candidate whose rapid ascent and grassroots campaign has attracted global notice. On the establishment side is the former governor, the former Democratic New York governor now campaigning independently – and enjoying the backing of wealthy contributors and big business.

With days to go, it is Mamdani, the one-time underdog who defeated Cuomo in the Democratic primary who is solidly positioned as the leading candidate. The candidate, who has campaigned on a agenda of economic justice and promised to halt rent increases for about two million New Yorkers, has outpaced his rival by double-digits across all surveys conducted in October, and it is very much the younger man's election to lose.

A Bitter Contest

However, the former governor, who stepped down as governor in recent years amid accusations of misconduct, has made it clear he will battle to the end, and not necessarily in an above-the-belt fashion. He has trashed his opponent's goals as unachievable, and in recent days chuckled along as a radio host made anti-Muslim comments about Mamdani, who is Muslim. Two weeks ago, the independent was widely condemned as bigoted after sharing an AI-generated ad that included a series of racist stereotypes and showed his opponent releasing a group of criminals.

This represents a rather grubby conclusion to an election that could be critical to the direction that the party, floundering in its response to the former president's authoritarian grabs, takes in the near future.

Broader Consequences

If Mamdani wins convincingly, the establishment party leaders who have refused to endorse his campaign will be compelled to address a message that has appealed to Americans' anger at inequality, soaring price rises and the establishment. It would be hard for Chuck Schumer and Hakeem Jeffries not to adopt at least a portion of the candidate's progressive proposals about affordability, given the newcomer has generated an enthusiasm within the party arguably not witnessed since the Vermont senator ran for president eight years ago.

Conversely, should Cuomo, who had been expected to win easily in the June primary, complete a surprising riches-to-rags-to-riches win, it could reinforce the party's existing approach of considered, lackluster resistance – a tactic that has infuriated grassroots members. A New York rejection of Mamdani's progressive, positive message could convince Schumer and Jeffries that the wisest course is to remain in the center – even as polls show the present version of the party is deeply unpopular nationwide.

Voter Enthusiasm

Voters in the city appear to favor the Mamdani vision. Surveys show that Mamdani supporters are much more excited about their candidate than Cuomo backers, something that has been apparent throughout the campaign. Mamdani's engaging content on social media, his optimistic vision for New York and his readiness to actually venture out and meet people in the city has attracted an army of over fifty thousand supporters, many of them young or new participants.

Negative Tactics

Yet, Cuomo, in his late sixties, isn't giving up. And with the stakes stacked against him, the former governor has turned to negative campaigning in recent weeks.

Following extensive throwing basically everything at Mamdani to see what might resonate, the independent has concentrated on attacking the candidate personally. He has called Mamdani, who was of Ugandan origin to Indian parents, an "radical", and popped up on Fox Business for an discussion with a rightwing host, where Cuomo asserted the city “will not survive” his opponent as mayor. It reached a nadir last week, when Cuomo chuckled and said “that’s another problem” after a radio host said the candidate would “cheer” another terrorist incident.

Political Landscape

This strategy mirrors much of what Trump, who has sent the military reserves to Washington DC and threatened to take similar action to New York, has said about the progressive, and perhaps that is expected. A set of billionaire New Yorkers, including some who donated to Trump in the 2024 election, have pumped millions into trying to elect the independent elected, as other powerful voices have urged Curtis Sliwa to withdraw from the contest.

Candidate Backgrounds

For the Cuomo camp, and his billionaire supporters, are worried, it should not have reached to this. When the assemblyman, one of 150 state legislators, started his campaign for mayor in last year, not many had known him, and in reality, few even noticed.

The former governor, by comparison, eased his way into the contest in this year and became the immediate frontrunner. He was the political heavyweight who seemingly held all the advantages. The quintessential political insider, he had married a political dynasty member and worked in a Democratic presidency. He became the state's leader in 2011, 17 years after his father, Mario Cuomo, stepped down from the same position.

Mamdani, who was voted in to the state legislature in 2020, does not have the same political heritage. But his commitment to providing no-cost transit and free childcare – along with the rent control promise – present a more positive vision of the future than Cuomo’s pessimistic predictions about “mayhem” and rising criminal activity, and his promise to hire more police officers.

Campaign Controversies

Still, Mamdani has faced some challenges in recent days, after footage surfaced appearing to show him suggesting the New York police department and the IDF were connected.

“We have to make clear that when the boot of the police is on your throat, it’s been influenced by the Israeli military,” Mamdani said in the recording, filmed at a Democratic Socialists of America convention in recent years. Mamdani, a longtime critic of Israel who has said the nation is engaging in atrocities in the Palestinian territory, suggested he was criticizing joint training exercises between the city police and Israeli forces.

Emotional Response

With the election nearing, Mamdani appears to have won sympathy and support, however, for his response to his opponent's increasing rhetoric.

Mamdani responded to the independent's terrorism comments in an emotional video. In it, the candidate recalled how, when he first ran for the legislature, a Muslim uncle advised to him that he did not have to disclose about his Muslim faith. It was a lesson, he said, that many Muslim New Yorkers had been told “again and again”: “That safety could only be found in the shadows of our city. That it is in those shadows alone where Muslims could express their full identities, and that if we were to step out from those shadows, then it is in those silence that we must leave our beliefs.”

Addressing the actions of Cuomo and Sliwa, who has alleged Mamd