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For a brief period, Donald Trump seemed to take a strong stance regarding the Ukrainian conflict. After making statements of "significant consequences" in August in case Russia's president carried on blocking ceasefire talks, Trump eventually introduced considerable sanctions on the Russian primary petroleum corporations, these major energy companies. This action seriously impacted Putin's capacity to finance his military invasion in Ukraine.

But, with his newly presented detailed peace initiative for the conflict, reportedly drafted by US and Russian representatives lacking Ukrainian or European involvement, he has clearly returned to his pro-Putin stance.

Benefiting Aggression

Trump's proposal would effectively reward Putin for occupying Ukraine while leaving the country's democracy in danger. Although ringing declarations that "The nation's sovereignty will be confirmed", much of the proposal actually weaken that essential independence. What represents a Moscow's wish would likely be a catastrophe for the nation.

Reflecting his real-estate past, Trump continues to consider the Ukrainian conflict as a mere territorial dispute, implying ceding Russia a section of Ukraine's territory will please the leader. However, Russia's war is not simply about occupying a charred area of industrial-devastated area in eastern Ukraine. Rather, it is about Ukraine's democracy – and Putin's clear intention to destroy it so it stops serves as an attractive standard for the Russian people of the accountable governance that his growing authoritarian rule denies them.

Land Giveaways

While maintaining in position the presently separated oblasts of Zaporizhzhia and Kherson, the plan would compel Ukraine to surrender the whole Donetsk province. Aside from rewarding Russia with area that its troops have been unable to capture in exceeding a decade of conflict, this giveaway would render Ukrainian defenses severely weakened.

Donetsk is the location of Ukraine's highly-touted "defensive line", the well-established military defenses that constitute a critical impediment to Russian advances. Trump would have Ukraine abandon these fortifications, providing Putin a unobstructed way to the capital if he later decide to renew the hostilities.

Defense Limitations

Additionally, in a step that would facilitate renewed conflict simpler for Russia, Trump would force the nation to diminish the scale of its armed forces from their current 800,000 to 850,000 soldiers to a limit of 600,000. Significantly, Trump's initiative sets no similar limits on Russia's military.

Apparently as a accommodation to Putin's campaign to portray Ukraine's democratically elected administration as radicals, Trump's plan states: "All extremist belief system and actions must be opposed and banned." As if to emphasize this point, it requires that "The nation will hold elections in three months" of a truce. At the same time, Trump imposes no condition that Putin risk his authoritarian rule by allowing elections in Russia.

Protection Guarantees

Admittedly, the initiative makes Russia promise not to "invade bordering nations" and to "establish in regulation its position of non-aggression towards Europe and the Ukrainian people". However given that Putin has violated comparable treaties in the past – for example the Budapest accord, in which the Russian government committed to recognize the nation's sovereignty in exchange for surrendering its Soviet-era nuclear weapons, and the Minsk accords, in which Russia committed to a halt in fighting and a handback of occupied areas in the Donbas to the government – how should anyone believe Putin on this occasion?

For this reason the Ukrainian government has been so insistent on external protection assurances. Although the proposal threatens a "strong coordinated military response" should the Russian Federation renew its aggression, and includes that "Ukraine will receive reliable security guarantees", the details include fuzzy to troubling. The plan would not only block Ukraine accession to NATO but also preclude member states from deploying troops on Ukrainian territory, effectively preventing the peacekeeping contingent, likely led by the UK and France, on which Ukraine had been counting to stop Putin from restoring his reduced military, re-equipping, and reinvading.

International Reaction

An additional supplementary accord reportedly would offer Ukraine with a Nato-style protection assurance, in which any later "serious, intentional, and ongoing aggression" by Russia on the country "shall be regarded as an act of war threatening the peace and security of the allied countries." This indicates a military response. But unlike a capable Ukrainian military – the nation's most reliable protection against future hostilities – the success of the supplementary deal would depend on the dedication of Western powers, such as Trump, to react with force to Russia's aggression, something they have {not