The EU Extends an Invitation to Ukraine, Yet Can It Truly Become a Member?
Ukraine's president, although leading his nation amidst a conflict, is also chasing a vision for peace: achieving EU accession for Ukraine swiftly.
Ukraine's persistent president is increasing pressure on EU governments to accelerate the typically slow accession process. He frames the collective struggle of Ukrainians as a battle "to secure the nation's future, the future of Ukraine within the European Union."
This dream of tens of millions of citizens gaining European status is, in theory, shared by the bloc itself. These days, no meeting in the EU capital concludes without the country's inclusion being described as a "geopolitical imperative."
Such rhetoric portrays the nation's survival and the continent's long-term security as inseparable parts of the same coin. However, for years following the 2004 "big bang" that admitted ten former eastern bloc countries, there was zero appetite for new members, especially not the large eastern nation. The Russian president's tanks changed all that – just months of the illegal 2022 full-scale attack, Ukraine had submitted an application for, and received, "candidate country" status. A later, European governments took the historic step to commence membership negotiations with a nation at war, although without a set timeframe. Neighbouring Moldova, the ex-USSR republic thought to be next in Putin's sights, vaulted to the front of the queue together with Ukraine.
Last week, the EU's executive body published its official assessment of the progress of ten aspiring countries, and ranked Ukraine and Moldova within the group of four frontrunners, alongside Albania and Montenegro. The EU foreign policy chief said it was a achievable target that this quartet might all be in the European Union by 2030.
Ukraine's favorable evaluation is undeniably remarkable. Enemy missile attacks are hammering the nation's power infrastructure nightly, its exchequer is nearly depleted and millions of its people are refugees, metaphorically residing in other parts of the continent. Its diplomats are often physically in shelters. But, in Brussels, officials are optimistic about the huge reform effort being undertaken in the capital despite continued worries about graft. Details of an reported scandal at the nation's national energy operator are still emerging. Nevertheless, they claim, accession talks could be finalized by late 2028. Negotiations with small Montenegro and Albania could be concluded by 2026 and 2027, respectively.
Major Hurdles Remain
However, there exists a sobering reality gap: the EU executive cannot decide who joins. The twenty-seven current member states hold that power, and they must agree by consensus through each phase. And, currently, the EU's resident leader Viktor Orbán is blocking the formal start of talks with Kyiv. And because its neighbor is bundled with the larger nation, it too is stuck.
All eyes are on elections in Hungary in the spring, could unseat the long-serving leader. Yet other member states with internal political concerns may be sheltering using Hungary. With nationalist groups gaining strength in France, Germany and already in power in other countries, the broader environment for Ukraine's accession is daunting.
Experts note a gap between rhetorical commitments and actual intentions. "I doubt that many countries in the Union really want the nation to be a full member, for different reasons," says one expert of the accession procedure. "And it is a tragedy: because the EU would win the lottery by bringing in Ukraine."
What Are the Challenges?
A geopolitical argument for accepting the country may be increasingly pressing considering the Kremlin's "unconventional warfare" on the continent, but given its size and intricacy, so are the political and financial hurdles. Once the talks are completed, approval by each of the 27 member states – several mandate public votes – is formally required for every new accession. Although public support for the nation's admission is undoubtedly high in Sweden, Finland and Denmark, a significant portion throughout the EU reject it.
Radical right political groups are increasing their influence and some of them are strongly Eurosceptic and against expansion. With the French far-right leader's far-right party potentially aiming for power in France in 2027, a referendum in the country on Ukraine's membership would be a difficult battle. Within pro-enlargement states, there is anxiety about the financial implications at stake, considering Ukraine's relative poverty and immense reconstruction needs. A bitter debate over whether to confiscate billions of immobilized Moscow's funds to bail out Ukraine before it exhausts its funds in the spring is ongoing. Poland, Hungary and Slovakia, meanwhile, fear that their farming economies will suffer if Ukraine, a huge agricultural nation and competitor, obtains eligibility for farm support payments.
Expansion in general, it is worried, could weaken rather than consolidating the Union, unless institutional changes are first implemented to avoid paralysis in a union of over thirty nations. But such reform could take a long time.
Winning Support and Security Concerns
Representatives in Brussels may have innovative solutions to the Hungarian leader's blockade such as "front-loading", where discussions could start unofficially until Budapest's opposition is lifted.
Discussions are underway, also, of including strict new legal guarantees and lengthy transition phases into new membership treaties to appease doubters. No one desires new members that on paper seem to uphold the democratic norms, but who prove to be "internal threats" to the bloc.
PR campaigns and "messaging" to gain the support of citizens in both the existing countries and the applicant nations are planned. It is clear, however, that raising expectations and then leaving millions in uncertainty for too long poses risks. As the Moldovan leader, Maia Sandu, who in September defeated Kremlin interference to achieve a impressive pro-EU electoral win, warned last week: "If we fail to deliver in the next three years … then what will be the signal to the citizens?"
Zelenskyy used an exclusive interview to stress the dangers of Moscow going to war against another European nation before the Ukraine war ends. He also stressed Ukraine's strength at a perilous moment, and his deep affection for his fellow Ukrainians. "I believe that
