Chalk it up to fate, luck, or a quirk of probability, depending on your inclination. If Australia's opening day in Adelaide was a jigsaw puzzle hurled into the air, most of the pieces came to rest the right way up and in the right place. This has been a familiar theme for the home side in this series: dominated by England's bowlers in Perth, only to engineer an even greater collapse; sliding in Brisbane, rescued by the lower order.
Once again, the trend persisted: whether it was questionable catching or unreliable technology, things keep working out for the home team.
England, in contrast, brought a gameplan founded on the belief that they couldn't win in Australia with medium-fast seamers and a keeper up to the stumps, then lost to lose to that very attack with a keeper up to the stumps. England was given the gift of no Pat Cummins, an absent Josh Hazlewood, Nathan Lyon's unavailability and still managed to suffer two defeats in six days. Their next match brought the next gift: Steve Smith being absent with an inner-ear problem, their very own Ghost of Ashes Past substituted in the batting lineup by a aging, struggling top-order batter whom Australia had already tried to omit.
Out of courtesy, England felt compelled to drop him too. At slip, on five runs, when the score would have been 50 for three. Just a few hours earlier, Usman Khawaja's career had been all but finished, with selectors finding a new option called the aggressive opening batter. Soon after, Khawaja had been twice reprieved, first by Smith's balance issues, then by Harry Brook's lack of balance at slip.
A Liberated Knock from the Number Five
The move down the order had only spared him nine overs at the top, but that meant he largely avoided Jofra Archer's fierce first spell, a possibly decisive missed contest given Khawaja's poor recent years against high-speed bowling. Unshackled, with little on the line, Khawaja played perhaps his most fluent and composed innings since his last comeback through the middle of the batling order in 2022.
Josh Tongue was only slightly less rapid than Archer, but Khawaja capitalized on his mistakes while exploiting Ben Stokes's bouncer to get his signature hook going. He saw Will Jacks's vulnerability as a day-one spinner and thumped him accordingly. He compiled a half century after lunch, during a vital rebuild with Alex Carey after some Christmas giveaways.
While Steve Smith is Australia's best bat in career terms, Alex Carey could be their most convincing one at present, after his second century this year.
A Chance That Slipped Away, but Influence Secured
This is still a strong possibility of this being Khawaja's final match, with Smith to return and the rest of the order unlikely to be shifted, so a hundred that could have been both comeback and farewell would have been one hell of a story. But straining against the constraints of age left it just out of reach. Steve Waugh in his last Test was fighting the dying of the light, hoping for one final century, out instead slog-sweeping a spinner to deep midwicket. Khawaja, older still, was out playing the same shot a spinner to the same fielder for 82.
Still, it was defining for the side, and another example of how discombobulation hasn't bothered these Australians. Lose your top batter minutes before the match? The replacement has it covered. A unorthodox lineup to follow? It poses no issue either.
Carey's Local Triumph
Carey as wicketkeeper would usually bat at No 7, while the original idea at the outset was to establish Cameron Green at No 6. The vacancy opened up by Travis Head's move was at No 5. However, instead of filling that gap, Australia brought him in at No 7 and moved Green and Carey up.
It seems normal about positioning an current keeper ahead of an off-duty one, but on this occasion it proved effective, maybe because Carey was fresh in the initial batting effort. He secured the hundred that Khawaja was denied, scoring in his usual positive way, producing a huge Adelaide occasion as local supporters swelled the ground.
Ultimately, he guided Australia's score from 85 when he came in to 321 when he was dismissed, and further runs are possible for the tail on the second morning. Smith was absent, most of the top seven made scores of little substance, but Australia are still on top, with far more runs than seemed probable at multiple points.
England's only path to change that is a powerful reset: take two wickets, bat for a long time in the scorching conditions. Anything else relies on the fates, or fortune, or a twist of probability. It's unwise to rely on such things.
