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A decade following the UK entered into a rushed referendum that divided the nation and caused disorder, a caution comes from beyond the Irish Sea: it might repeat.

The government and electorate sleepwalked into Brexit and the same might transpire with a national vote on a unified Ireland, triggering disturbances for which nobody is ready.

That conveys the caution from two leading writers from each side of the Irish border who have collaborated to analyse the pros and cons of Northern Ireland departing the UK to create a different country with the Republic of Ireland.

Governmental Institutions Ill-Equipped

Fintan O’Toole and Sam McBride, have found that the administrative systems in Ireland and Britain are woefully unready for a possibly tense and seismic public vote.

"The lesson of Brexit remains unheeded, which is that stuff can emerge unexpectedly and can gather momentum rapidly," the commentator stated. "It is my view that the political architecture of our islands remains very unstable."

Book Publication Seeks to Stir Debate

The duo have examined the governmental, economic and cultural arguments for any constitutional change in a publication, Examining Irish Unification, issued by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.

They hope to provoke discussion on the matter with a tour of speaking events that will bring them to Westminster soon.

"What haunts everyone, or must worry all involved, is the Brexit vote of 2016," commented the analyst.

"We do not want a national vote on a thumbs up-thumbs down, unclear proposal whose implications have not been spelled out because then you land with an highly polarised community where the losing side are resistant to defeat and the people who have won lack clarity quite what it is that they have gained."

Constitutional Provision

Under the Belfast Agreement, the Northern Ireland government minister must arrange a public vote on Irish unity if it seems probable that a majority would vote in favour.

Nationalist parties and other pro-unification groups claim that moment is approaching, and a non-profit called Ireland’s Future has rallied support, but both governments and unionists play down the likelihood, making it uncertain when or if there might be a national vote.

Insufficient Serious Debate

Political rhetoric supporting and opposing unification has obscured the shortage of serious debate, stated the journalist.

"People tend to be for or against the concept but the actual thinking which might go beyond that to achieve it is mostly absent. A great deal has occurred in academia but very few politicians or advocates are willing to participate with the basics. For instance, what type of nation might be preferred? Unitary? Federal?"

Publication's Method

In the book, no writer supports unification or the current situation. They authors two pieces that aim for impartiality in detailing the case for a united Ireland and the argument opposing it, assembling economic and social figures, past examples and structural examples.

Debates cover identity markers, levies, healthcare systems, pensions, public liabilities and the risk of pro-UK militancy. The aim is to inform and encourage conversation.

"Considerable attention exists in the issue but there is still lacking a discussion," commented the writer. "Discussion suggests an acceptance of the concept that there could be reasonable perspectives on each side."

Dual Referendums

A referendum in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the Republic of Ireland, where voters say they support unification but reject increased taxation or introducing a different emblem to reflect pro-UK communities' UK heritage.

"Authorities in Dublin does need to work out what the offer from pro-unification movements is beyond just stating: 'We desire a unified Ireland and we welcome you'," stated O’Toole.

Probability of Public Vote

The journalist thinks a referendum in his era is possible and that it may take place unexpectedly. "There might be just a reckless or a poor or a incompetent official who declares: 'Let's just do this and get it out of the way.'"

Each of the nationalists and unionists have credible, legitimate points, he said. "Somebody will win on this issue and the other side will eventually be defeated but each side has has something to learn from the opposing positions."

Call for Wider Debate

Westminster should participate in the debate, said O’Toole. "This involves the United Kingdom. It's a British question equally as it is an Irish matter."