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Back in 2018, a mere a short phrase to ignite the party's annual gathering and to show the party was becoming disillusioned with Jeremy Corbyn. Although not precisely stirring rhetoric, the phrase met with wild cheering as most of the hall stood for an impromptu ovation.

As the commotion died down, Keir Starmer, stood at the podium, visibly startled. He wasn't really accustomed to his addresses having such an effect. His statement was simply: "We are not excluding remain as an option". Context, however, is key.

During that deeply polarized period of 2018, departing from his agreed text like this was inevitably viewed as laying down the gauntlet to the party leader, who was trying to prioritise leave supporters in key constituencies over the pro-European instincts within Labour. In just one speech, this seemingly cautious opposition Brexit spokesman underwent a transformation – if only for a while – into a risk-taker who would stand up for most Labour MPs, members and voters against the leadership he would later replace.

The Evolution in Position and Closed Debates

In the years since, much has happened, not least to Starmer himself. An early move after taking over from Corbyn in 2020 was declaring the Brexit issue had been settled by the 2019 general election. And, at the last one, he consistently stressed manifesto “red line” promises that ruled out re-entry into the European Union or its core structures.

Like his predecessor, his strategy has focused on winning Brexit-y voters in key seats, even if polling evidence indicates many of them have passed away or shifted opinion.

Pressure Building on the EU

Yet, the tables have turned and Starmer is now to face the pressures of being a party leader. And, if EU relations is no longer the central crisis of British politics, a lid that has been kept firmly shut for five years is starting to loosen once more.

Both Starmer and Rachel Reeves have intensified their language about the devastation caused by Brexit has inflicted on the UK’s economy. This serves as an effective tool with which to beat the Reform UK leader, who seldom discusses his flagship policy was his primary goal and is still his only real achievement.

Nevertheless, the extent of the economic harm, reportedly has left Britain with a national economy that is significantly diminished than if it were still in the EU, dwarfs the micro-mitigation so far offered by the government. Starmer’s so-called relationship reset negotiated with the EU in 2024 offers economic benefits quantified in low decimal points.

Internal Pressure and Ambitious Proposals

The chancellor is one of those trying to overcome long-standing interior ministry opposition to an expansive version of a growth-enabling youth mobility scheme by which young people can travel between the UK and the EU to study or work.

The deputy prime minister muses openly about the “self-evident” benefits of joining a customs union with the EU, as several Labour backbenchers, such as the head of the Treasury select committee, recently voted for an opposition proposal on customs union membership.

While Nick Thomas-Symonds, who oversees UK-EU relations, who is now attending all cabinet sessions, insists the red lines remain unchanged, there exist avenues these could be bypassed. One idea involves announce the start of negotiations now for a more ambitious agreement, for inclusion in the following election platform, to be enacted only after Labour won a new electoral mandate.

The Prime Minister's Fundamental Doubts

However, Starmer has lately been pouring cold water again cautioning that rejoining a European customs area could undermine the trade pacts with the US, which he regards as key accomplishments of his government.

It is understood that Starmer's doubts go still deeper, and is rooted in several key concerns.

1. Firstly, he thinks a customs pact is now significantly more difficult because his ministers busily de-aligning from EU regulations in numerous sectors, including the environment.
2. Second, the exorbitant price demanded from Britain for entry into a European defense initiative and the ensuing failure of negotiations has led British officials that former EU partners have little interest in offering favorable terms with Britain than in demonstrating that leaving the EU was a mistake.
3. Thirdly, America's latest security doctrine, praised by Moscow, is viewed by key advisors in Downing Street as a reason for the UK to maintain distance from the EU.

A Bizarre Document and Geopolitical Considerations

This bizarre and terrifying American strategy paper claims Europe faces cultural extinction because of Muslim migration. It contains only one reference to Britain, found on a proposal that the US government may interfere in our politics to foster the growth of nationalist movements.

But, far from deciding that this makes the US an undependable ally, the government is worried that aligning closer with Europe could upset the global balance by endangering precarious American backing for Kyiv, NATO, and other alliances.

Succession Chatter & The Echo from the Past

All of which returns us to the conference of 2018. Starmer has always said his speech was not an attempt for the leadership but simply an attempt to preserve the possibility of staying in the EU being on the ballot paper. In fact, back then, he still supported a tailored trade agreement of the kind he now appears to be opposing.

Observers within the Prime Minister's office note that Wes Streeting, widely considered would be a candidate for the leadership, is part of a group of cabinet ministers letting it be known they desire greater ambition on Europe.

Aides to Angela Rayner, another likely contender in a future race for the top job, insist she won’t discuss her position on a customs union because it would only “fuel unnecessary gossip”.

The Clear Danger & A Prudent Reminder

The danger is obvious. If Starmer rules out significant moves towards EU alignment, he allows rivals to occupy the space where the overwhelming majority of Labour MPs, members and voters reside.

It would be prudent of him to recall the effect just a few words had on his career seven years ago. There are options for a major proposal on Europe that the prime minister ought to consider; he should explore them himself, before someone else adopt them as their own.